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Tue, 04 Apr 2006

One percent reduction in cancer mortality would be worth nearly $500 billion

There's some serious playing around with numbers in here:

Social value of improved health and longevity is the amount in dollars that additional life years or other health improvements are worth to people, the report said. The value of improved longevity is based on what individuals gain from the enjoyment of consumption and time during an additional year of life, rather than how much they earn.

So how, exactly, does one calculate "social value"? The obvious answer: any way one wants to, preferably using the method that will buttress whatever conclusion you're trying to reach. Note that these conclusions usually involve political policy choices (such as this one, arguing for more allocation of Federal research money towards cancer research).

While the goals may be admirable, the methods are not. These kinds of studies don't cook data, they literally fabricate it.

Even a modest one percent reduction in mortality from cancer would be worth nearly $500 billion in social value, according to a new study by economists Kevin Murphy and Robert Topel of the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business. Finding a cure for cancer would be worth about $50 trillion.

(link) [EurekAlert!]

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